Daily Papers

In the era of large models, the autoregressive nature of decoding often results in latency serving as a significant bottleneck. We propose a non-autoregressive LM-fused ASR system that effectively leverages the parallelization capabilities of accelerator hardware. Our approach combines the Universal Speech Model (USM) and the PaLM 2 language model in per-segment scoring mode, achieving an average relative WER improvement across all languages of 10.8% on FLEURS and 3.6% on YouTube captioning. Furthermore, our comprehensive ablation study analyzes key parameters such as LLM size, context length, vocabulary size, fusion methodology. For instance, we explore the impact of LLM size ranging from 128M to 340B parameters on ASR performance. This study provides valuable insights into the factors influencing the effectiveness of practical large-scale LM-fused speech recognition systems.

This paper introduces Embarrassingly Easy Text-to-Speech (E2 TTS), a fully non-autoregressive zero-shot text-to-speech system that offers human-level naturalness and state-of-the-art speaker similarity and intelligibility. In the E2 TTS framework, the text input is converted into a character sequence with filler tokens. The flow-matching-based mel spectrogram generator is then trained based on the audio infilling task. Unlike many previous works, it does not require additional components (e.g., duration model, grapheme-to-phoneme) or complex techniques (e.g., monotonic alignment search). Despite its simplicity, E2 TTS achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot TTS capabilities that are comparable to or surpass previous works, including Voicebox and NaturalSpeech 3. The simplicity of E2 TTS also allows for flexibility in the input representation. We propose several variants of E2 TTS to improve usability during inference. See https://aka.ms/e2tts/ for demo samples.

Generating natural-sounding, multi-speaker dialogue is crucial for applications such as podcast creation, virtual agents, and multimedia content generation. However, existing systems struggle to maintain speaker consistency, model overlapping speech, and synthesize coherent conversations efficiently. In this paper, we introduce CoVoMix2, a fully non-autoregressive framework for zero-shot multi-talker dialogue generation. CoVoMix2 directly predicts mel-spectrograms from multi-stream transcriptions using a flow-matching-based generative model, eliminating the reliance on intermediate token representations. To better capture realistic conversational dynamics, we propose transcription-level speaker disentanglement, sentence-level alignment, and prompt-level random masking strategies. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming strong baselines like MoonCast and Sesame in speech quality, speaker consistency, and inference speed. Notably, CoVoMix2 operates without requiring transcriptions for the prompt and supports controllable dialogue generation, including overlapping speech and precise timing control, demonstrating strong generalizability to real-world speech generation scenarios.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful paradigm for generation, obtaining strong performance in various domains with continuous-valued inputs. Despite the promises of fully non-autoregressive text generation, applying diffusion models to natural language remains challenging due to its discrete nature. In this work, we propose Text-to-text Self-conditioned Simplex Diffusion (TESS), a text diffusion model that is fully non-autoregressive, employs a new form of self-conditioning, and applies the diffusion process on the logit simplex space rather than the typical learned embedding space. Through extensive experiments on natural language understanding and generation tasks including summarization, text simplification, paraphrase generation, and question generation, we demonstrate that TESS outperforms state-of-the-art non-autoregressive models and is competitive with pretrained autoregressive sequence-to-sequence models.

This paper introduces F5-TTS, a fully non-autoregressive text-to-speech system based on flow matching with Diffusion Transformer (DiT). Without requiring complex designs such as duration model, text encoder, and phoneme alignment, the text input is simply padded with filler tokens to the same length as input speech, and then the denoising is performed for speech generation, which was originally proved feasible by E2 TTS. However, the original design of E2 TTS makes it hard to follow due to its slow convergence and low robustness. To address these issues, we first model the input with ConvNeXt to refine the text representation, making it easy to align with the speech. We further propose an inference-time Sway Sampling strategy, which significantly improves our model's performance and efficiency. This sampling strategy for flow step can be easily applied to existing flow matching based models without retraining. Our design allows faster training and achieves an inference RTF of 0.15, which is greatly improved compared to state-of-the-art diffusion-based TTS models. Trained on a public 100K hours multilingual dataset, our Fairytaler Fakes Fluent and Faithful speech with Flow matching (F5-TTS) exhibits highly natural and expressive zero-shot ability, seamless code-switching capability, and speed control efficiency. Demo samples can be found at https://SWivid.github.io/F5-TTS. We release all code and checkpoints to promote community development.

The recent large-scale text-to-speech (TTS) systems are usually grouped as autoregressive and non-autoregressive systems. The autoregressive systems implicitly model duration but exhibit certain deficiencies in robustness and lack of duration controllability. Non-autoregressive systems require explicit alignment information between text and speech during training and predict durations for linguistic units (e.g. phone), which may compromise their naturalness. In this paper, we introduce Masked Generative Codec Transformer (MaskGCT), a fully non-autoregressive TTS model that eliminates the need for explicit alignment information between text and speech supervision, as well as phone-level duration prediction. MaskGCT is a two-stage model: in the first stage, the model uses text to predict semantic tokens extracted from a speech self-supervised learning (SSL) model, and in the second stage, the model predicts acoustic tokens conditioned on these semantic tokens. MaskGCT follows the mask-and-predict learning paradigm. During training, MaskGCT learns to predict masked semantic or acoustic tokens based on given conditions and prompts. During inference, the model generates tokens of a specified length in a parallel manner. Experiments with 100K hours of in-the-wild speech demonstrate that MaskGCT outperforms the current state-of-the-art zero-shot TTS systems in terms of quality, similarity, and intelligibility. Audio samples are available at https://maskgct.github.io/.

Despite the non-autoregressive potential of diffusion language models (dLLMs), existing decoding strategies demonstrate positional bias, failing to fully unlock the potential of arbitrary generation. In this work, we delve into the inherent spectral characteristics of dLLMs and present the first frequency-domain analysis showing that low-frequency components in hidden states primarily encode global structural information and long-range dependencies, while high-frequency components are responsible for characterizing local details. Based on this observation, we propose FourierSampler, which leverages a frequency-domain sliding window mechanism to dynamically guide the model to achieve a "structure-to-detail" generation. FourierSampler outperforms other inference enhancement strategies on LLADA and SDAR, achieving relative improvements of 20.4% on LLaDA1.5-8B and 16.0% on LLaDA-8B-Instruct. It notably surpasses similarly sized autoregressive models like Llama3.1-8B-Instruct.

Large Language Models (LLMs) inherently use autoregressive decoding, which lacks parallelism in inference and results in significantly slow inference speeds, especially when hardware parallel accelerators and memory bandwidth are not fully utilized. In this work, we propose Amphista, a speculative decoding algorithm that adheres to a non-autoregressive decoding paradigm. Owing to the increased parallelism, our method demonstrates higher efficiency in inference compared to autoregressive methods. Specifically, Amphista models an Auto-embedding Block capable of parallel inference, incorporating bi-directional attention to enable interaction between different drafting heads. Additionally, Amphista implements Staged Adaptation Layers to facilitate the transition of semantic information from the base model's autoregressive inference to the drafting heads' non-autoregressive speculation, thereby achieving paradigm transformation and feature fusion. We conduct a series of experiments on a suite of Vicuna models using MT-Bench and Spec-Bench. For the Vicuna 33B model, Amphista achieves up to 2.75times and 1.40times wall-clock acceleration compared to vanilla autoregressive decoding and Medusa, respectively, while preserving lossless generation quality.

Previous works (Donahue et al., 2018a; Engel et al., 2019a) have found that generating coherent raw audio waveforms with GANs is challenging. In this paper, we show that it is possible to train GANs reliably to generate high quality coherent waveforms by introducing a set of architectural changes and simple training techniques. Subjective evaluation metric (Mean Opinion Score, or MOS) shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach for high quality mel-spectrogram inversion. To establish the generality of the proposed techniques, we show qualitative results of our model in speech synthesis, music domain translation and unconditional music synthesis. We evaluate the various components of the model through ablation studies and suggest a set of guidelines to design general purpose discriminators and generators for conditional sequence synthesis tasks. Our model is non-autoregressive, fully convolutional, with significantly fewer parameters than competing models and generalizes to unseen speakers for mel-spectrogram inversion. Our pytorch implementation runs at more than 100x faster than realtime on GTX 1080Ti GPU and more than 2x faster than real-time on CPU, without any hardware specific optimization tricks.

We introduce Seed-TTS, a family of large-scale autoregressive text-to-speech (TTS) models capable of generating speech that is virtually indistinguishable from human speech. Seed-TTS serves as a foundation model for speech generation and excels in speech in-context learning, achieving performance in speaker similarity and naturalness that matches ground truth human speech in both objective and subjective evaluations. With fine-tuning, we achieve even higher subjective scores across these metrics. Seed-TTS offers superior controllability over various speech attributes such as emotion and is capable of generating highly expressive and diverse speech for speakers in the wild. Furthermore, we propose a self-distillation method for speech factorization, as well as a reinforcement learning approach to enhance model robustness, speaker similarity, and controllability. We additionally present a non-autoregressive (NAR) variant of the Seed-TTS model, named Seed-TTS_DiT, which utilizes a fully diffusion-based architecture. Unlike previous NAR-based TTS systems, Seed-TTS_DiT does not depend on pre-estimated phoneme durations and performs speech generation through end-to-end processing. We demonstrate that this variant achieves comparable performance to the language model-based variant and showcase its effectiveness in speech editing. We encourage readers to listen to demos at https://bytedancespeech.github.io/seedtts_tech_report.

The two dominant approaches to neural text generation are fully autoregressive models, using serial beam search decoding, and non-autoregressive models, using parallel decoding with no output dependencies. This work proposes an autoregressive model with sub-linear parallel time generation. Noting that conditional random fields with bounded context can be decoded in parallel, we propose an efficient cascaded decoding approach for generating high-quality output. To parameterize this cascade, we introduce a Markov transformer, a variant of the popular fully autoregressive model that allows us to simultaneously decode with specific autoregressive context cutoffs. This approach requires only a small modification from standard autoregressive training, while showing competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.

Agentic task-solving with Large Language Models (LLMs) requires multi-turn, multi-step interactions, often involving complex function calls and dynamic user-agent exchanges. Existing simulation-based data generation methods for such scenarios rely heavily on costly autoregressive interactions between multiple LLM agents, thereby limiting real-world performance of agentic tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel Non-Autoregressive Iterative Generation framework, called ToolACE-MT, for constructing high-quality multi-turn agentic dialogues. ToolACE-MT generates full conversational trajectories through three stages: coarse-grained initialization, iterative refinement, and offline verification. The initialization phase builds a structurally complete yet semantically coarse dialogue skeleton; the iterative refinement phase introduces realistic complexities and continued refinement via mask-and-fill operations; and the offline verification phase ensures correctness and coherence via rule- and model-based checks. Experiments demonstrate that ToolACE-MT enables efficient, effective and generalizable agentic data generation, offering a new paradigm for high-quality data construction in tool-augmented LLM scenarios.

Recent advancements in music generation have garnered significant attention, yet existing approaches face critical limitations. Some current generative models can only synthesize either the vocal track or the accompaniment track. While some models can generate combined vocal and accompaniment, they typically rely on meticulously designed multi-stage cascading architectures and intricate data pipelines, hindering scalability. Additionally, most systems are restricted to generating short musical segments rather than full-length songs. Furthermore, widely used language model-based methods suffer from slow inference speeds. To address these challenges, we propose DiffRhythm, the first latent diffusion-based song generation model capable of synthesizing complete songs with both vocal and accompaniment for durations of up to 4m45s in only ten seconds, maintaining high musicality and intelligibility. Despite its remarkable capabilities, DiffRhythm is designed to be simple and elegant: it eliminates the need for complex data preparation, employs a straightforward model structure, and requires only lyrics and a style prompt during inference. Additionally, its non-autoregressive structure ensures fast inference speeds. This simplicity guarantees the scalability of DiffRhythm. Moreover, we release the complete training code along with the pre-trained model on large-scale data to promote reproducibility and further research.

Autoregressive decoding is the only part of sequence-to-sequence models that prevents them from massive parallelization at inference time. Non-autoregressive models enable the decoder to generate all output symbols independently in parallel. We present a novel non-autoregressive architecture based on connectionist temporal classification and evaluate it on the task of neural machine translation. Unlike other non-autoregressive methods which operate in several steps, our model can be trained end-to-end. We conduct experiments on the WMT English-Romanian and English-German datasets. Our models achieve a significant speedup over the autoregressive models, keeping the translation quality comparable to other non-autoregressive models.

Autoregressive (AR) models, common in sequence generation, are limited in many biological tasks such as de novo peptide sequencing and protein modeling by their unidirectional nature, failing to capture crucial global bidirectional token dependencies. Non-Autoregressive (NAR) models offer holistic, bidirectional representations but face challenges with generative coherence and scalability. To transcend this, we propose a hybrid framework enhancing AR generation by dynamically integrating rich contextual information from non-autoregressive mechanisms. Our approach couples a shared input encoder with two decoders: a non-autoregressive one learning latent bidirectional biological features, and an AR decoder synthesizing the biological sequence by leveraging these bidirectional features. A novel cross-decoder attention module enables the AR decoder to iteratively query and integrate these bidirectional features, enriching its predictions. This synergy is cultivated via a tailored training strategy with importance annealing for balanced objectives and cross-decoder gradient blocking for stable, focused learning. Evaluations on a demanding nine-species benchmark of de novo peptide sequencing show that our model substantially surpasses AR and NAR baselines. It uniquely harmonizes AR stability with NAR contextual awareness, delivering robust, superior performance on diverse downstream data. This research advances biological sequence modeling techniques and contributes a novel architectural paradigm for augmenting AR models with enhanced bidirectional understanding for complex sequence generation. Code is available at https://github.com/BEAM-Labs/denovo.

Non-Autoregressive generation is a sequence generation paradigm, which removes the dependency between target tokens. It could efficiently reduce the text generation latency with parallel decoding in place of token-by-token sequential decoding. However, due to the known multi-modality problem, Non-Autoregressive (NAR) models significantly under-perform Auto-regressive (AR) models on various language generation tasks. Among the NAR models, BANG is the first large-scale pre-training model on English un-labeled raw text corpus. It considers different generation paradigms as its pre-training tasks including Auto-regressive (AR), Non-Autoregressive (NAR), and semi-Non-Autoregressive (semi-NAR) information flow with multi-stream strategy. It achieves state-of-the-art performance without any distillation techniques. However, AR distillation has been shown to be a very effective solution for improving NAR performance. In this paper, we propose a novel self-paced mixed distillation method to further improve the generation quality of BANG. Firstly, we propose the mixed distillation strategy based on the AR stream knowledge. Secondly, we encourage the model to focus on the samples with the same modality by self-paced learning. The proposed self-paced mixed distillation algorithm improves the generation quality and has no influence on the inference latency. We carry out extensive experiments on summarization and question generation tasks to validate the effectiveness. To further illustrate the commercial value of our approach, we conduct experiments on three generation tasks in real-world advertisements applications. Experimental results on commercial data show the effectiveness of the proposed model. Compared with BANG, it achieves significant BLEU score improvement. On the other hand, compared with auto-regressive generation method, it achieves more than 7x speedup.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Recent advances in Transformer-based Large Language Models have made great strides in natural language generation. However, to decode K tokens, an autoregressive model needs K sequential forward passes, which may be a performance bottleneck for large language models. Many non-autoregressive (NAR) research are aiming to address this sequentiality bottleneck, albeit many have focused on a dedicated architecture in supervised benchmarks. In this work, we studied unsupervised pretraining for non auto-regressive T5 models via unrolled denoising and shown its SoTA results in downstream generation tasks such as SQuAD question generation and XSum.

Much recent effort has been invested in non-autoregressive neural machine translation, which appears to be an efficient alternative to state-of-the-art autoregressive machine translation on modern GPUs. In contrast to the latter, where generation is sequential, the former allows generation to be parallelized across target token positions. Some of the latest non-autoregressive models have achieved impressive translation quality-speed tradeoffs compared to autoregressive baselines. In this work, we reexamine this tradeoff and argue that autoregressive baselines can be substantially sped up without loss in accuracy. Specifically, we study autoregressive models with encoders and decoders of varied depths. Our extensive experiments show that given a sufficiently deep encoder, a single-layer autoregressive decoder can substantially outperform strong non-autoregressive models with comparable inference speed. We show that the speed disadvantage for autoregressive baselines compared to non-autoregressive methods has been overestimated in three aspects: suboptimal layer allocation, insufficient speed measurement, and lack of knowledge distillation. Our results establish a new protocol for future research toward fast, accurate machine translation. Our code is available at https://github.com/jungokasai/deep-shallow.

Non-AutoRegressive (NAR) text generation models have drawn much attention because of their significantly faster decoding speed and good generation quality in machine translation. However, in a wider range of text generation tasks, existing NAR models lack proper pre-training, making them still far behind the pre-trained autoregressive models. In this paper, we propose Pre-trained Directed Acyclic Transformer (PreDAT) and a novel pre-training task to promote prediction consistency in NAR generation. Experiments on five text generation tasks show that our PreDAT remarkably outperforms existing pre-trained NAR models (+4.2 scores on average) and even achieves better results than pre-trained autoregressive baselines in n-gram-based metrics, along with 17 times speedup in throughput. Further analysis shows that PreDAT benefits from the unbiased prediction order that alleviates the error accumulation problem in autoregressive generation, which provides new insights into the advantages of NAR generation.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

Non-autoregressive (NAR) modeling has gained significant interest in speech processing since these models achieve dramatically lower inference time than autoregressive (AR) models while also achieving good transcription accuracy. Since NAR automatic speech recognition (ASR) models must wait for the completion of the entire utterance before processing, some works explore streaming NAR models based on blockwise attention for low-latency applications. However, streaming NAR models significantly lag in accuracy compared to streaming AR and non-streaming NAR models. To address this, we propose a streaming "semi-autoregressive" ASR model that incorporates the labels emitted in previous blocks as additional context using a Language Model (LM) subnetwork. We also introduce a novel greedy decoding algorithm that addresses insertion and deletion errors near block boundaries while not significantly increasing the inference time. Experiments show that our method outperforms the existing streaming NAR model by 19% relative on Tedlium2, 16%/8% on Librispeech-100 clean/other test sets, and 19%/8% on the Switchboard(SWB) / Callhome(CH) test sets. It also reduced the accuracy gap with streaming AR and non-streaming NAR models while achieving 2.5x lower latency. We also demonstrate that our approach can effectively utilize external text data to pre-train the LM subnetwork to further improve streaming ASR accuracy.

Non-autoregressive (NAR) generation, which is first proposed in neural machine translation (NMT) to speed up inference, has attracted much attention in both machine learning and natural language processing communities. While NAR generation can significantly accelerate inference speed for machine translation, the speedup comes at the cost of sacrificed translation accuracy compared to its counterpart, autoregressive (AR) generation. In recent years, many new models and algorithms have been designed/proposed to bridge the accuracy gap between NAR generation and AR generation. In this paper, we conduct a systematic survey with comparisons and discussions of various non-autoregressive translation (NAT) models from different aspects. Specifically, we categorize the efforts of NAT into several groups, including data manipulation, modeling methods, training criterion, decoding algorithms, and the benefit from pre-trained models. Furthermore, we briefly review other applications of NAR models beyond machine translation, such as grammatical error correction, text summarization, text style transfer, dialogue, semantic parsing, automatic speech recognition, and so on. In addition, we also discuss potential directions for future exploration, including releasing the dependency of KD, reasonable training objectives, pre-training for NAR, and wider applications, etc. We hope this survey can help researchers capture the latest progress in NAR generation, inspire the design of advanced NAR models and algorithms, and enable industry practitioners to choose appropriate solutions for their applications. The web page of this survey is at https://github.com/LitterBrother-Xiao/Overview-of-Non-autoregressive-Applications.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

Recent large-scale neural autoregressive sequence models have shown impressive performances on a variety of natural language generation tasks. However, their generated sequences often exhibit degenerate properties such as non-termination, undesirable repetition, and premature termination, when generated with decoding algorithms such as greedy search, beam search, top-k sampling, and nucleus sampling. In this paper, we focus on the problem of non-terminating sequences resulting from an incomplete decoding algorithm. We first define an incomplete probable decoding algorithm which includes greedy search, top-k sampling, and nucleus sampling, beyond the incomplete decoding algorithm originally put forward by Welleck et al. (2020). We then propose a non-monotonic self-terminating language model, which significantly relaxes the constraint of monotonically increasing termination probability in the originally proposed self-terminating language model by Welleck et al. (2020), to address the issue of non-terminating sequences when using incomplete probable decoding algorithms. We prove that our proposed model prevents non-terminating sequences when using not only incomplete probable decoding algorithms but also beam search. We empirically validate our model on sequence completion tasks with various architectures.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

In standard autoregressive generation, an LLM predicts the next-token distribution, samples a discrete token, and then discards the distribution, passing only the sampled token as new input. To preserve this distribution's rich information, we propose Mixture of Inputs (MoI), a training-free method for autoregressive generation. After generating a token following the standard paradigm, we construct a new input that blends the generated discrete token with the previously discarded token distribution. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian estimation method that treats the token distribution as the prior, the sampled token as the observation, and replaces the conventional one-hot vector with the continuous posterior expectation as the new model input. MoI allows the model to maintain a richer internal representation throughout the generation process, resulting in improved text quality and reasoning capabilities. On mathematical reasoning, code generation, and PhD-level QA tasks, MoI consistently improves performance across multiple models including QwQ-32B, Nemotron-Super-49B, Gemma-3-27B, and DAPO-Qwen-32B, with no additional training and negligible computational overhead.

Most recent real-world image super-resolution (Real-ISR) methods employ pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models to synthesize the high-quality image either from random Gaussian noise, which yields realistic results but is slow due to iterative denoising, or directly from the input low-quality image, which is efficient but at the price of lower output quality. These approaches train ControlNet or LoRA modules while keeping the pre-trained model fixed, which often introduces over-enhanced artifacts and hallucinations, suffering from the robustness to inputs of varying degradations. Recent visual autoregressive (AR) models, such as pre-trained Infinity, can provide strong T2I generation capabilities while offering superior efficiency by using the bitwise next-scale prediction strategy. Building upon next-scale prediction, we introduce a robust Real-ISR framework, namely Next-Scale Autoregressive Modeling (NSARM). Specifically, we train NSARM in two stages: a transformation network is first trained to map the input low-quality image to preliminary scales, followed by an end-to-end full-model fine-tuning. Such a comprehensive fine-tuning enhances the robustness of NSARM in Real-ISR tasks without compromising its generative capability. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that as a pure AR model, NSARM achieves superior visual results over existing Real-ISR methods while maintaining a fast inference speed. Most importantly, it demonstrates much higher robustness to the quality of input images, showing stronger generalization performance. Project page: https://github.com/Xiangtaokong/NSARM

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

Unsupervised learning of probabilistic models is a central yet challenging problem in machine learning. Specifically, designing models with tractable learning, sampling, inference and evaluation is crucial in solving this task. We extend the space of such models using real-valued non-volume preserving (real NVP) transformations, a set of powerful invertible and learnable transformations, resulting in an unsupervised learning algorithm with exact log-likelihood computation, exact sampling, exact inference of latent variables, and an interpretable latent space. We demonstrate its ability to model natural images on four datasets through sampling, log-likelihood evaluation and latent variable manipulations.

Self-supervised speech representations have been shown to be effective in a variety of speech applications. However, existing representation learning methods generally rely on the autoregressive model and/or observed global dependencies while generating the representation. In this work, we propose Non-Autoregressive Predictive Coding (NPC), a self-supervised method, to learn a speech representation in a non-autoregressive manner by relying only on local dependencies of speech. NPC has a conceptually simple objective and can be implemented easily with the introduced Masked Convolution Blocks. NPC offers a significant speedup for inference since it is parallelizable in time and has a fixed inference time for each time step regardless of the input sequence length. We discuss and verify the effectiveness of NPC by theoretically and empirically comparing it with other methods. We show that the NPC representation is comparable to other methods in speech experiments on phonetic and speaker classification while being more efficient.

Autoregressive models have achieved impressive results over a wide range of domains in terms of generation quality and downstream task performance. In the continuous domain, a key factor behind this success is the usage of quantized latent spaces (e.g., obtained via VQ-VAE autoencoders), which allow for dimensionality reduction and faster inference times. However, using existing pre-trained models to perform new non-trivial tasks is difficult since it requires additional fine-tuning or extensive training to elicit prompting. This paper introduces LASS as a way to perform vector-quantized Latent Autoregressive Source Separation (i.e., de-mixing an input signal into its constituent sources) without requiring additional gradient-based optimization or modifications of existing models. Our separation method relies on the Bayesian formulation in which the autoregressive models are the priors, and a discrete (non-parametric) likelihood function is constructed by performing frequency counts over latent sums of addend tokens. We test our method on images and audio with several sampling strategies (e.g., ancestral, beam search) showing competitive results with existing approaches in terms of separation quality while offering at the same time significant speedups in terms of inference time and scalability to higher dimensional data.

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

Autoregressive (AR) models for image generation typically adopt a two-stage paradigm of vector quantization and raster-scan ``next-token prediction", inspired by its great success in language modeling. However, due to the huge modality gap, image autoregressive models may require a systematic reevaluation from two perspectives: tokenizer format and regression direction. In this paper, we introduce the frequency progressive autoregressive (FAR) paradigm and instantiate FAR with the continuous tokenizer. Specifically, we identify spectral dependency as the desirable regression direction for FAR, wherein higher-frequency components build upon the lower one to progressively construct a complete image. This design seamlessly fits the causality requirement for autoregressive models and preserves the unique spatial locality of image data. Besides, we delve into the integration of FAR and the continuous tokenizer, introducing a series of techniques to address optimization challenges and improve the efficiency of training and inference processes. We demonstrate the efficacy of FAR through comprehensive experiments on the ImageNet dataset and verify its potential on text-to-image generation.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success in sequential data generation, particularly in NLP, but their extension to continuous-domain image generation presents significant challenges. Recent work, the masked autoregressive model (MAR), bypasses quantization by modeling per-token distributions in continuous spaces using a diffusion head but suffers from slow inference due to the high computational cost of the iterative denoising process. To address this, we propose the Fast AutoRegressive model (FAR), a novel framework that replaces MAR's diffusion head with a lightweight shortcut head, enabling efficient few-step sampling while preserving autoregressive principles. Additionally, FAR seamlessly integrates with causal Transformers, extending them from discrete to continuous token generation without requiring architectural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that FAR achieves 2.3times faster inference than MAR while maintaining competitive FID and IS scores. This work establishes the first efficient autoregressive paradigm for high-fidelity continuous-space image generation, bridging the critical gap between quality and scalability in visual autoregressive modeling.

Non-autoregressive (nAR) models for machine translation (MT) manifest superior decoding speed when compared to autoregressive (AR) models, at the expense of impaired fluency of their outputs. We improve the fluency of a nAR model with connectionist temporal classification (CTC) by employing additional features in the scoring model used during beam search decoding. Since the beam search decoding in our model only requires to run the network in a single forward pass, the decoding speed is still notably higher than in standard AR models. We train models for three language pairs: German, Czech, and Romanian from and into English. The results show that our proposed models can be more efficient in terms of decoding speed and still achieve a competitive BLEU score relative to AR models.

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

Transformers have recently dominated the ASR field. Although able to yield good performance, they involve an autoregressive (AR) decoder to generate tokens one by one, which is computationally inefficient. To speed up inference, non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, e.g. single-step NAR, were designed, to enable parallel generation. However, due to an independence assumption within the output tokens, performance of single-step NAR is inferior to that of AR models, especially with a large-scale corpus. There are two challenges to improving single-step NAR: Firstly to accurately predict the number of output tokens and extract hidden variables; secondly, to enhance modeling of interdependence between output tokens. To tackle both challenges, we propose a fast and accurate parallel transformer, termed Paraformer. This utilizes a continuous integrate-and-fire based predictor to predict the number of tokens and generate hidden variables. A glancing language model (GLM) sampler then generates semantic embeddings to enhance the NAR decoder's ability to model context interdependence. Finally, we design a strategy to generate negative samples for minimum word error rate training to further improve performance. Experiments using the public AISHELL-1, AISHELL-2 benchmark, and an industrial-level 20,000 hour task demonstrate that the proposed Paraformer can attain comparable performance to the state-of-the-art AR transformer, with more than 10x speedup.

In this paper, we present NUWA-Infinity, a generative model for infinite visual synthesis, which is defined as the task of generating arbitrarily-sized high-resolution images or long-duration videos. An autoregressive over autoregressive generation mechanism is proposed to deal with this variable-size generation task, where a global patch-level autoregressive model considers the dependencies between patches, and a local token-level autoregressive model considers dependencies between visual tokens within each patch. A Nearby Context Pool (NCP) is introduced to cache-related patches already generated as the context for the current patch being generated, which can significantly save computation costs without sacrificing patch-level dependency modeling. An Arbitrary Direction Controller (ADC) is used to decide suitable generation orders for different visual synthesis tasks and learn order-aware positional embeddings. Compared to DALL-E, Imagen and Parti, NUWA-Infinity can generate high-resolution images with arbitrary sizes and support long-duration video generation additionally. Compared to NUWA, which also covers images and videos, NUWA-Infinity has superior visual synthesis capabilities in terms of resolution and variable-size generation. The GitHub link is https://github.com/microsoft/NUWA. The homepage link is https://nuwa-infinity.microsoft.com.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

We study the text generation task under the approach of pre-trained language models (PLMs). Typically, an auto-regressive (AR) method is adopted for generating texts in a token-by-token manner. Despite many advantages of AR generation, it usually suffers from inefficient inference. Therefore, non-autoregressive (NAR) models are proposed to generate all target tokens simultaneously. However, NAR models usually generate texts of lower quality due to the absence of token dependency in the output text. In this paper, we propose ELMER: an efficient and effective PLM for NAR text generation to explicitly model the token dependency during NAR generation. By leveraging the early exit technique, ELMER enables the token generations at different layers, according to their prediction confidence (a more confident token will exit at a lower layer). Besides, we propose a novel pre-training objective, Layer Permutation Language Modeling, to pre-train ELMER by permuting the exit layer for each token in sequences. Experiments on three text generation tasks show that ELMER significantly outperforms NAR models and further narrows the performance gap with AR PLMs (\eg ELMER (29.92) vs BART (30.61) ROUGE-L in XSUM) while achieving over 10 times inference speedup.

Table-to-text generation refers to generating a descriptive text from a key-value table. Traditional autoregressive methods, though can generate text with high fluency, suffer from low coverage and poor faithfulness problems. To mitigate these problems, we propose a novel Skeleton-based two-stage method that combines both Autoregressive and Non-Autoregressive generations (SANA). Our approach includes: (1) skeleton generation with an autoregressive pointer network to select key tokens from the source table; (2) edit-based non-autoregressive generation model to produce texts via iterative insertion and deletion operations. By integrating hard constraints from the skeleton, the non-autoregressive model improves the generation's coverage over the source table and thus enhances its faithfulness. We conduct automatic and human evaluations on both WikiPerson and WikiBio datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods in both automatic and human evaluation, especially on coverage and faithfulness. In particular, we achieve PARENT-T recall of 99.47 in WikiPerson, improving over the existing best results by more than 10 points.

Autoregressive (AR) models have emerged as powerful tools for image generation by modeling images as sequences of discrete tokens. While Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) has been adopted to improve conditional generation, its application in AR models faces two key issues: guidance diminishing, where the conditional-unconditional gap quickly vanishes as decoding progresses, and over-guidance, where strong conditions distort visual coherence. To address these challenges, we propose SoftCFG, an uncertainty-guided inference method that distributes adaptive perturbations across all tokens in the sequence. The key idea behind SoftCFG is to let each generated token contribute certainty-weighted guidance, ensuring that the signal persists across steps while resolving conflicts between text guidance and visual context. To further stabilize long-sequence generation, we introduce Step Normalization, which bounds cumulative perturbations of SoftCFG. Our method is training-free, model-agnostic, and seamlessly integrates with existing AR pipelines. Experiments show that SoftCFG significantly improves image quality over standard CFG and achieves state-of-the-art FID on ImageNet 256*256 among autoregressive models.

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

Autoregressive modeling has been a huge success in the field of natural language processing (NLP). Recently, autoregressive models have emerged as a significant area of focus in computer vision, where they excel in producing high-quality visual content. Autoregressive models in NLP typically operate on subword tokens. However, the representation strategy in computer vision can vary in different levels, i.e., pixel-level, token-level, or scale-level, reflecting the diverse and hierarchical nature of visual data compared to the sequential structure of language. This survey comprehensively examines the literature on autoregressive models applied to vision. To improve readability for researchers from diverse research backgrounds, we start with preliminary sequence representation and modeling in vision. Next, we divide the fundamental frameworks of visual autoregressive models into three general sub-categories, including pixel-based, token-based, and scale-based models based on the strategy of representation. We then explore the interconnections between autoregressive models and other generative models. Furthermore, we present a multi-faceted categorization of autoregressive models in computer vision, including image generation, video generation, 3D generation, and multi-modal generation. We also elaborate on their applications in diverse domains, including emerging domains such as embodied AI and 3D medical AI, with about 250 related references. Finally, we highlight the current challenges to autoregressive models in vision with suggestions about potential research directions. We have also set up a Github repository to organize the papers included in this survey at: https://github.com/ChaofanTao/Autoregressive-Models-in-Vision-Survey.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines variational autoencoders with structural causal models to generate counterfactual financial time series while preserving both temporal dependencies and causal relationships. Our approach enforces causal constraints through directed acyclic graphs in the decoder architecture and employs the causal Wasserstein distance for training. We validate our method on synthetic autoregressive models inspired by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, demonstrating superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation with L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10 compared to ground truth. The model enables financial stress testing, scenario analysis, and enhanced backtesting by generating plausible counterfactual market trajectories that respect underlying causal mechanisms.

While autoregressive (AR) modeling has recently emerged as a new paradigm in visual generation, its practical adoption is severely constrained by the slow inference speed of per-token generation, which often requires thousands of steps to produce a single sample. To address this challenge, we propose MC-SJD, a training-free, lossless parallel decoding framework designed to accelerate AR visual generation by extending the recently introduced Speculative Jacobi Decoding (SJD). Although SJD shows strong potential for accelerating AR generation, we demonstrate that token instability across iterations significantly reduces the acceptance rate, a limitation that primarily arises from the independent sampling process used during draft token generation. To overcome this, we introduce MC-SJD, an information-theoretic approach based on coupling, which substantially accelerates standard SJD by maximizing the probability of sampling identical draft tokens across consecutive iterations, all while preserving its lossless property. Remarkably, this method requires only a single-line modification to the existing algorithm, yet achieves substantial performance gains, delivering up to a ~4.2x acceleration in image generation and ~13.3x acceleration in video generation compared to standard AR decoding, without any degradation in output quality.

Real-world time series are characterized by intrinsic non-stationarity that poses a principal challenge for deep forecasting models. While previous models suffer from complicated series variations induced by changing temporal distribution, we tackle non-stationary time series with modern Koopman theory that fundamentally considers the underlying time-variant dynamics. Inspired by Koopman theory of portraying complex dynamical systems, we disentangle time-variant and time-invariant components from intricate non-stationary series by Fourier Filter and design Koopman Predictor to advance respective dynamics forward. Technically, we propose Koopa as a novel Koopman forecaster composed of stackable blocks that learn hierarchical dynamics. Koopa seeks measurement functions for Koopman embedding and utilizes Koopman operators as linear portraits of implicit transition. To cope with time-variant dynamics that exhibits strong locality, Koopa calculates context-aware operators in the temporal neighborhood and is able to utilize incoming ground truth to scale up forecast horizon. Besides, by integrating Koopman Predictors into deep residual structure, we ravel out the binding reconstruction loss in previous Koopman forecasters and achieve end-to-end forecasting objective optimization. Compared with the state-of-the-art model, Koopa achieves competitive performance while saving 77.3% training time and 76.0% memory.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

Autoregressive (AR) models remain the standard for natural language generation but still suffer from high latency due to strictly sequential decoding. Recent diffusion-inspired approaches, such as LlaDA and Dream, mitigate this by generating in parallel, yet they suffer from two core limitations: information loss, as predictive distributions for non-finalized tokens are discarded at each step, and premature commitment, where local decisions are made without sufficient global coordination. We introduce Latent Refinement Decoding (LRD), a two-stage framework with Latent Refinement and a Predictive Feedback Loop. The first stage maintains masked positions as distributional mixtures of predicted tokens and the mask embedding, allowing the model to establish more globally consistent beliefs. The second stage progressively finalizes confident tokens while retaining uncertain ones for iterative feedback. KL-divergence dynamics provide a principled and reliable criterion for convergence and early stopping. Experiments across coding (HumanEval +6.3, MBPP +2.6) and reasoning (GSM8K +2.9, MATH500 +3.8) show that LRD improves accuracy while delivering speedups of up to 10.6x, making it a strong and versatile alternative for parallel sequence generation.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

Non-autoregressive translation (NAT) significantly accelerates the inference process via predicting the entire target sequence. However, recent studies show that NAT is weak at learning high-mode of knowledge such as one-to-many translations. We argue that modes can be divided into various granularities which can be learned from easy to hard. In this study, we empirically show that NAT models are prone to learn fine-grained lower-mode knowledge, such as words and phrases, compared with sentences. Based on this observation, we propose progressive multi-granularity training for NAT. More specifically, to make the most of the training data, we break down the sentence-level examples into three types, i.e. words, phrases, sentences, and with the training goes, we progressively increase the granularities. Experiments on Romanian-English, English-German, Chinese-English, and Japanese-English demonstrate that our approach improves the phrase translation accuracy and model reordering ability, therefore resulting in better translation quality against strong NAT baselines. Also, we show that more deterministic fine-grained knowledge can further enhance performance.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.

Recent studies of gradient descent with large step sizes have shown that there is often a regime with an initial increase in the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian (progressive sharpening), followed by a stabilization of the eigenvalue near the maximum value which allows convergence (edge of stability). These phenomena are intrinsically non-linear and do not happen for models in the constant Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, for which the predictive function is approximately linear in the parameters. As such, we consider the next simplest class of predictive models, namely those that are quadratic in the parameters, which we call second-order regression models. For quadratic objectives in two dimensions, we prove that this second-order regression model exhibits progressive sharpening of the NTK eigenvalue towards a value that differs slightly from the edge of stability, which we explicitly compute. In higher dimensions, the model generically shows similar behavior, even without the specific structure of a neural network, suggesting that progressive sharpening and edge-of-stability behavior aren't unique features of neural networks, and could be a more general property of discrete learning algorithms in high-dimensional non-linear models.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) generative models have produced increasingly powerful systems for media synthesis. Among them, next-scale prediction has emerged as a popular paradigm, where models generate images in a coarse-to-fine manner. However, scale-wise AR models suffer from exposure bias, which undermines generation quality. We identify two primary causes of this issue: (1) train-test mismatch, where the model must rely on its own imperfect predictions during inference, and (2) imbalance in scale-wise learning difficulty, where certain scales exhibit disproportionately higher optimization complexity. Through a comprehensive analysis of training dynamics, we propose Self-Autoregressive Refinement (SAR) to address these limitations. SAR introduces a Stagger-Scale Rollout (SSR) mechanism that performs lightweight autoregressive rollouts to expose the model to its own intermediate predictions, thereby aligning train-test patterns, and a complementary Contrastive Student-Forcing Loss (CSFL) that provides adequate supervision for self-generated contexts to ensure stable training. Experimental results show that applying SAR to pretrained AR models consistently improves generation quality with minimal computational overhead. For instance, SAR yields a 5.2% FID reduction on FlexVAR-d16 trained on ImageNet 256 within 10 epochs (5 hours on 32xA100 GPUs). Given its efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness, we expect SAR to serve as a reliable post-training method for visual autoregressive generation.

This paper presents a novel approach that enables autoregressive video generation with high efficiency. We propose to reformulate the video generation problem as a non-quantized autoregressive modeling of temporal frame-by-frame prediction and spatial set-by-set prediction. Unlike raster-scan prediction in prior autoregressive models or joint distribution modeling of fixed-length tokens in diffusion models, our approach maintains the causal property of GPT-style models for flexible in-context capabilities, while leveraging bidirectional modeling within individual frames for efficiency. With the proposed approach, we train a novel video autoregressive model without vector quantization, termed NOVA. Our results demonstrate that NOVA surpasses prior autoregressive video models in data efficiency, inference speed, visual fidelity, and video fluency, even with a much smaller model capacity, i.e., 0.6B parameters. NOVA also outperforms state-of-the-art image diffusion models in text-to-image generation tasks, with a significantly lower training cost. Additionally, NOVA generalizes well across extended video durations and enables diverse zero-shot applications in one unified model. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/baaivision/NOVA.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Existing autoregressive (AR) image generative models use a token-by-token generation schema. That is, they predict a per-token probability distribution and sample the next token from that distribution. The main challenge is how to model the complex distribution of high-dimensional tokens. Previous methods either are too simplistic to fit the distribution or result in slow generation speed. Instead of fitting the distribution of the whole tokens, we explore using a AR model to generate each token in a feature-by-feature way, i.e., taking the generated features as input and generating the next feature. Based on that, we propose ARINAR (AR-in-AR), a bi-level AR model. The outer AR layer take previous tokens as input, predicts a condition vector z for the next token. The inner layer, conditional on z, generates features of the next token autoregressively. In this way, the inner layer only needs to model the distribution of a single feature, for example, using a simple Gaussian Mixture Model. On the ImageNet 256x256 image generation task, ARINAR-B with 213M parameters achieves an FID of 2.75, which is comparable to the state-of-the-art MAR-B model (FID=2.31), while five times faster than the latter.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of universal forecasting, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: i) cross-frequency learning, ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed Masked Encoder-based Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformer (Moirai). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. Code, model weights, and data will be released.

We propose TalkNet, a non-autoregressive convolutional neural model for speech synthesis with explicit pitch and duration prediction. The model consists of three feed-forward convolutional networks. The first network predicts grapheme durations. An input text is expanded by repeating each symbol according to the predicted duration. The second network predicts pitch value for every mel frame. The third network generates a mel-spectrogram from the expanded text conditioned on predicted pitch. All networks are based on 1D depth-wise separable convolutional architecture. The explicit duration prediction eliminates word skipping and repeating. The quality of the generated speech nearly matches the best auto-regressive models - TalkNet trained on the LJSpeech dataset got MOS 4.08. The model has only 13.2M parameters, almost 2x less than the present state-of-the-art text-to-speech models. The non-autoregressive architecture allows for fast training and inference. The small model size and fast inference make the TalkNet an attractive candidate for embedded speech synthesis.

Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear transformations - polynomial expansions in NVAR or random feature maps in RC - limits their adaptability to high noise or complex real-world data. Furthermore, these methods also exhibit poor scalability in high-dimensional settings due to costly matrix inversion during optimization. We propose a data-adaptive NVAR model that combines delay-embedded linear inputs with features generated by a shallow, trainable multilayer perceptron (MLP). Unlike standard NVAR and RC models, the MLP and linear readout are jointly trained using gradient-based optimization, enabling the model to learn data-driven nonlinearities, while preserving a simple readout structure and improving scalability. Initial experiments across multiple chaotic systems, tested under noise-free and synthetically noisy conditions, showed that the adaptive model outperformed in predictive accuracy the standard NVAR, a leaky echo state network (ESN) - the most common RC model - and a hybrid ESN, thereby showing robust forecasting under noisy conditions.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Real-world perception and interaction are inherently multimodal, encompassing not only language but also vision and speech, which motivates the development of "Omni" MLLMs that support both multimodal inputs and multimodal outputs. While a sequence of omni MLLMs has emerged, most existing systems still rely on additional expert components to achieve multimodal generation, limiting the simplicity of unified training and inference. Autoregressive (AR) modeling, with a single token stream, a single next-token objective, and a single decoder, is an elegant and scalable foundation in the text domain. Motivated by this, we present AR-Omni, a unified any-to-any model in the autoregressive paradigm without any expert decoders. AR-Omni supports autoregressive text and image generation, as well as streaming speech generation, all under a single Transformer decoder. We further address three practical issues in unified AR modeling: modality imbalance via task-aware loss reweighting, visual fidelity via a lightweight token-level perceptual alignment loss for image tokens, and stability-creativity trade-offs via a finite-state decoding mechanism. Empirically, AR-Omni achieves strong quality across three modalities while remaining real-time, achieving a 0.88 real-time factor for speech generation.

We propose to extract meaning representations from autoregressive language models by considering the distribution of all possible trajectories extending an input text. This strategy is prompt-free, does not require fine-tuning, and is applicable to any pre-trained autoregressive model. Moreover, unlike vector-based representations, distribution-based representations can also model asymmetric relations (e.g., direction of logical entailment, hypernym/hyponym relations) by using algebraic operations between likelihood functions. These ideas are grounded in distributional perspectives on semantics and are connected to standard constructions in automata theory, but to our knowledge they have not been applied to modern language models. We empirically show that the representations obtained from large models align well with human annotations, outperform other zero-shot and prompt-free methods on semantic similarity tasks, and can be used to solve more complex entailment and containment tasks that standard embeddings cannot handle. Finally, we extend our method to represent data from different modalities (e.g., image and text) using multimodal autoregressive models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/tianyu139/meaning-as-trajectories

Existing approaches to neural machine translation condition each output word on previously generated outputs. We introduce a model that avoids this autoregressive property and produces its outputs in parallel, allowing an order of magnitude lower latency during inference. Through knowledge distillation, the use of input token fertilities as a latent variable, and policy gradient fine-tuning, we achieve this at a cost of as little as 2.0 BLEU points relative to the autoregressive Transformer network used as a teacher. We demonstrate substantial cumulative improvements associated with each of the three aspects of our training strategy, and validate our approach on IWSLT 2016 English-German and two WMT language pairs. By sampling fertilities in parallel at inference time, our non-autoregressive model achieves near-state-of-the-art performance of 29.8 BLEU on WMT 2016 English-Romanian.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Nonlinear sufficient dimension reductionlibing_generalSDR, which constructs nonlinear low-dimensional representations to summarize essential features of high-dimensional data, is an important branch of representation learning. However, most existing methods are not applicable when the response variables are complex non-Euclidean random objects, which are frequently encountered in many recent statistical applications. In this paper, we introduce a new statistical dependence measure termed Fr\'echet Cumulative Covariance (FCCov) and develop a novel nonlinear SDR framework based on FCCov. Our approach is not only applicable to complex non-Euclidean data, but also exhibits robustness against outliers. We further incorporate Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to estimate nonlinear sufficient directions in the sample level. Theoretically, we prove that our method with squared Frobenius norm regularization achieves unbiasedness at the sigma-field level. Furthermore, we establish non-asymptotic convergence rates for our estimators based on FNNs and ResNet-type CNNs, which match the minimax rate of nonparametric regression up to logarithmic factors. Intensive simulation studies verify the performance of our methods in both Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings. We apply our method to facial expression recognition datasets and the results underscore more realistic and broader applicability of our proposal.

In this note we examine the autoregressive generalization of the FNet algorithm, in which self-attention layers from the standard Transformer architecture are substituted with a trivial sparse-uniformsampling procedure based on Fourier transforms. Using the Wikitext-103 benchmark, we demonstratethat FNetAR retains state-of-the-art performance (25.8 ppl) on the task of causal language modelingcompared to a Transformer-XL baseline (24.2 ppl) with only half the number self-attention layers,thus providing further evidence for the superfluity of deep neural networks with heavily compoundedattention mechanisms. The autoregressive Fourier transform could likely be used for parameterreduction on most Transformer-based time-series prediction models.

This work challenges the residual prediction paradigm in visual autoregressive modeling and presents FlexVAR, a new Flexible Visual AutoRegressive image generation paradigm. FlexVAR facilitates autoregressive learning with ground-truth prediction, enabling each step to independently produce plausible images. This simple, intuitive approach swiftly learns visual distributions and makes the generation process more flexible and adaptable. Trained solely on low-resolution images (leq 256px), FlexVAR can: (1) Generate images of various resolutions and aspect ratios, even exceeding the resolution of the training images. (2) Support various image-to-image tasks, including image refinement, in/out-painting, and image expansion. (3) Adapt to various autoregressive steps, allowing for faster inference with fewer steps or enhancing image quality with more steps. Our 1.0B model outperforms its VAR counterpart on the ImageNet 256times256 benchmark. Moreover, when zero-shot transfer the image generation process with 13 steps, the performance further improves to 2.08 FID, outperforming state-of-the-art autoregressive models AiM/VAR by 0.25/0.28 FID and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.52/0.19 FID, respectively. When transferring our 1.0B model to the ImageNet 512times512 benchmark in a zero-shot manner, FlexVAR achieves competitive results compared to the VAR 2.3B model, which is a fully supervised model trained at 512times512 resolution.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful approach for visual generation but suffer from slow inference speed due to their sequential token-by-token prediction process. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach for parallelized autoregressive visual generation that improves generation efficiency while preserving the advantages of autoregressive modeling. Our key insight is that parallel generation depends on visual token dependencies-tokens with weak dependencies can be generated in parallel, while strongly dependent adjacent tokens are difficult to generate together, as their independent sampling may lead to inconsistencies. Based on this observation, we develop a parallel generation strategy that generates distant tokens with weak dependencies in parallel while maintaining sequential generation for strongly dependent local tokens. Our approach can be seamlessly integrated into standard autoregressive models without modifying the architecture or tokenizer. Experiments on ImageNet and UCF-101 demonstrate that our method achieves a 3.6x speedup with comparable quality and up to 9.5x speedup with minimal quality degradation across both image and video generation tasks. We hope this work will inspire future research in efficient visual generation and unified autoregressive modeling. Project page: https://epiphqny.github.io/PAR-project.

Powerful priors allow us to perform inference with insufficient information. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive prior for 3D shapes to solve multimodal 3D tasks such as shape completion, reconstruction, and generation. We model the distribution over 3D shapes as a non-sequential autoregressive distribution over a discretized, low-dimensional, symbolic grid-like latent representation of 3D shapes. This enables us to represent distributions over 3D shapes conditioned on information from an arbitrary set of spatially anchored query locations and thus perform shape completion in such arbitrary settings (e.g., generating a complete chair given only a view of the back leg). We also show that the learned autoregressive prior can be leveraged for conditional tasks such as single-view reconstruction and language-based generation. This is achieved by learning task-specific naive conditionals which can be approximated by light-weight models trained on minimal paired data. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using both quantitative and qualitative evaluation and show that the proposed method outperforms the specialized state-of-the-art methods trained for individual tasks. The project page with code and video visualizations can be found at https://yccyenchicheng.github.io/AutoSDF/.

We introduce InfinityStar, a unified spacetime autoregressive framework for high-resolution image and dynamic video synthesis. Building on the recent success of autoregressive modeling in both vision and language, our purely discrete approach jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies within a single architecture. This unified design naturally supports a variety of generation tasks such as text-to-image, text-to-video, image-to-video, and long interactive video synthesis via straightforward temporal autoregression. Extensive experiments demonstrate that InfinityStar scores 83.74 on VBench, outperforming all autoregressive models by large margins, even surpassing some diffusion competitors like HunyuanVideo. Without extra optimizations, our model generates a 5s, 720p video approximately 10x faster than leading diffusion-based methods. To our knowledge, InfinityStar is the first discrete autoregressive video generator capable of producing industrial level 720p videos. We release all code and models to foster further research in efficient, high-quality video generation.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling departs from the next-token prediction paradigm of traditional Autoregressive (AR) models through next-scale prediction, enabling high-quality image generation. However, the VAR paradigm suffers from sharply increased computational complexity and running time at large-scale steps. Although existing acceleration methods reduce runtime for large-scale steps, but rely on manual step selection and overlook the varying importance of different stages in the generation process. To address this challenge, we present StageVAR, a systematic study and stage-aware acceleration framework for VAR models. Our analysis shows that early steps are critical for preserving semantic and structural consistency and should remain intact, while later steps mainly refine details and can be pruned or approximated for acceleration. Building on these insights, StageVAR introduces a plug-and-play acceleration strategy that exploits semantic irrelevance and low-rank properties in late-stage computations, without requiring additional training. Our proposed StageVAR achieves up to 3.4x speedup with only a 0.01 drop on GenEval and a 0.26 decrease on DPG, consistently outperforming existing acceleration baselines. These results highlight stage-aware design as a powerful principle for efficient visual autoregressive image generation.

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

Despite Flow Matching and diffusion models having emerged as powerful generative paradigms for continuous variables such as images and videos, their application to high-dimensional discrete data, such as language, is still limited. In this work, we present Discrete Flow Matching, a novel discrete flow paradigm designed specifically for generating discrete data. Discrete Flow Matching offers several key contributions: (i) it works with a general family of probability paths interpolating between source and target distributions; (ii) it allows for a generic formula for sampling from these probability paths using learned posteriors such as the probability denoiser (x-prediction) and noise-prediction (epsilon-prediction); (iii) practically, focusing on specific probability paths defined with different schedulers considerably improves generative perplexity compared to previous discrete diffusion and flow models; and (iv) by scaling Discrete Flow Matching models up to 1.7B parameters, we reach 6.7% Pass@1 and 13.4% Pass@10 on HumanEval and 6.7% Pass@1 and 20.6% Pass@10 on 1-shot MBPP coding benchmarks. Our approach is capable of generating high-quality discrete data in a non-autoregressive fashion, significantly closing the gap between autoregressive models and discrete flow models.

Recorrupted-to-Recorrupted (R2R) has emerged as a methodology for training deep networks for image restoration in a self-supervised manner from noisy measurement data alone, demonstrating equivalence in expectation to the supervised squared loss in the case of Gaussian noise. However, its effectiveness with non-Gaussian noise remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose Generalized R2R (GR2R), extending the R2R framework to handle a broader class of noise distribution as additive noise like log-Rayleigh and address the natural exponential family including Poisson and Gamma noise distributions, which play a key role in many applications including low-photon imaging and synthetic aperture radar. We show that the GR2R loss is an unbiased estimator of the supervised loss and that the popular Stein's unbiased risk estimator can be seen as a special case. A series of experiments with Gaussian, Poisson, and Gamma noise validate GR2R's performance, showing its effectiveness compared to other self-supervised methods.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

The growth of the Machine-Learning-As-A-Service (MLaaS) market has highlighted clients' data privacy and security issues. Private inference (PI) techniques using cryptographic primitives offer a solution but often have high computation and communication costs, particularly with non-linear operators like ReLU. Many attempts to reduce ReLU operations exist, but they may need heuristic threshold selection or cause substantial accuracy loss. This work introduces AutoReP, a gradient-based approach to lessen non-linear operators and alleviate these issues. It automates the selection of ReLU and polynomial functions to speed up PI applications and introduces distribution-aware polynomial approximation (DaPa) to maintain model expressivity while accurately approximating ReLUs. Our experimental results demonstrate significant accuracy improvements of 6.12% (94.31%, 12.9K ReLU budget, CIFAR-10), 8.39% (74.92%, 12.9K ReLU budget, CIFAR-100), and 9.45% (63.69%, 55K ReLU budget, Tiny-ImageNet) over current state-of-the-art methods, e.g., SNL. Morever, AutoReP is applied to EfficientNet-B2 on ImageNet dataset, and achieved 75.55% accuracy with 176.1 times ReLU budget reduction.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently garnered significant attention for their innovative next-scale prediction paradigm, offering notable advantages in both inference efficiency and image quality compared to traditional multi-step autoregressive (AR) and diffusion models. However, despite their efficiency, VAR models often suffer from the diversity collapse i.e., a reduction in output variability, analogous to that observed in few-step distilled diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce DiverseVAR, a simple yet effective approach that restores the generative diversity of VAR models without requiring any additional training. Our analysis reveals the pivotal component of the feature map as a key factor governing diversity formation at early scales. By suppressing the pivotal component in the model input and amplifying it in the model output, DiverseVAR effectively unlocks the inherent generative potential of VAR models while preserving high-fidelity synthesis. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach substantially enhances generative diversity with only neglectable performance influences. Our code will be publicly released at https://github.com/wangtong627/DiverseVAR.

Missing values are common in real-world time series, and multivariate time series forecasting with missing values (MTSF-M) has become a crucial area of research for ensuring reliable predictions. To address the challenge of missing data, current approaches have developed an imputation-then-prediction framework that uses imputation modules to fill in missing values, followed by forecasting on the imputed data. However, this framework overlooks a critical issue: there is no ground truth for the missing values, making the imputation process susceptible to errors that can degrade prediction accuracy. In this paper, we conduct a systematic empirical study and reveal that imputation without direct supervision can corrupt the underlying data distribution and actively degrade prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose a paradigm shift that moves away from imputation and directly predicts from the partially observed time series. We introduce Consistency-Regularized Information Bottleneck (CRIB), a novel framework built on the Information Bottleneck principle. CRIB combines a unified-variate attention mechanism with a consistency regularization scheme to learn robust representations that filter out noise introduced by missing values while preserving essential predictive signals. Comprehensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CRIB, which predicts accurately even under high missing rates. Our code is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/CRIB.

This paper introduces Mamba4Cast, a zero-shot foundation model for time series forecasting. Based on the Mamba architecture and inspired by Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), Mamba4Cast generalizes robustly across diverse time series tasks without the need for dataset specific fine-tuning. Mamba4Cast's key innovation lies in its ability to achieve strong zero-shot performance on real-world datasets while having much lower inference times than time series foundation models based on the transformer architecture. Trained solely on synthetic data, the model generates forecasts for entire horizons in a single pass, outpacing traditional auto-regressive approaches. Our experiments show that Mamba4Cast performs competitively against other state-of-the-art foundation models in various data sets while scaling significantly better with the prediction length. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/automl/Mamba4Cast.

In this paper, we investigate the underexplored challenge of sample diversity in autoregressive (AR) generative models with bitwise visual tokenizers. We first analyze the factors that limit diversity in bitwise AR models and identify two key issues: (1) the binary classification nature of bitwise modeling, which restricts the prediction space, and (2) the overly sharp logits distribution, which causes sampling collapse and reduces diversity. Building on these insights, we propose DiverseAR, a principled and effective method that enhances image diversity without sacrificing visual quality. Specifically, we introduce an adaptive logits distribution scaling mechanism that dynamically adjusts the sharpness of the binary output distribution during sampling, resulting in smoother predictions and greater diversity. To mitigate potential fidelity loss caused by distribution smoothing, we further develop an energy-based generation path search algorithm that avoids sampling low-confidence tokens, thereby preserving high visual quality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DiverseAR substantially improves sample diversity in bitwise autoregressive image generation.

Scaling Text-to-speech (TTS) to large-scale datasets has been demonstrated as an effective method for improving the diversity and naturalness of synthesized speech. At the high level, previous large-scale TTS models can be categorized into either Auto-regressive (AR) based (e.g., VALL-E) or Non-auto-regressive (NAR) based models (e.g., NaturalSpeech 2/3). Although these works demonstrate good performance, they still have potential weaknesses. For instance, AR-based models are plagued by unstable generation quality and slow generation speed; meanwhile, some NAR-based models need phoneme-level duration alignment information, thereby increasing the complexity of data pre-processing, model design, and loss design. In this work, we build upon our previous publication by implementing a simple and efficient non-autoregressive (NAR) TTS framework, termed SimpleSpeech 2. SimpleSpeech 2 effectively combines the strengths of both autoregressive (AR) and non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, offering the following key advantages: (1) simplified data preparation; (2) straightforward model and loss design; and (3) stable, high-quality generation performance with fast inference speed. Compared to our previous publication, we present ({\romannumeral1}) a detailed analysis of the influence of speech tokenizer and noisy label for TTS performance; ({\romannumeral2}) four distinct types of sentence duration predictors; ({\romannumeral3}) a novel flow-based scalar latent transformer diffusion model. With these improvement, we show a significant improvement in generation performance and generation speed compared to our previous work and other state-of-the-art (SOTA) large-scale TTS models. Furthermore, we show that SimpleSpeech 2 can be seamlessly extended to multilingual TTS by training it on multilingual speech datasets. Demos are available on: {https://dongchaoyang.top/SimpleSpeech2\_demo/}.

Recent large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities that benefits from online reinforcement learning (RL). These capabilities have primarily been demonstrated within the left-to-right autoregressive (AR) generation paradigm. In contrast, non-autoregressive paradigms based on diffusion generate text in a coarse-to-fine manner. Although recent diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) have achieved competitive language modeling performance compared to their AR counterparts, it remains unclear if dLLMs can also leverage recent advances in LLM reasoning. To this end, we propose d1, a framework to adapt pre-trained masked dLLMs into reasoning models via a combination of supervised finetuning (SFT) and RL. Specifically, we develop and extend techniques to improve reasoning in pretrained dLLMs: (a) we utilize a masked SFT technique to distill knowledge and instill self-improvement behavior directly from existing datasets, and (b) we introduce a novel critic-free, policy-gradient based RL algorithm called diffu-GRPO. Through empirical studies, we investigate the performance of different post-training recipes on multiple mathematical and logical reasoning benchmarks. We find that d1 yields the best performance and significantly improves performance of a state-of-the-art dLLM.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has achieved remarkable success in natural language processing by enabling models to generate text with coherence and contextual understanding through next token prediction. Recently, in image generation, VAR proposes scale-wise autoregressive modeling, which extends the next token prediction to the next scale prediction, preserving the 2D structure of images. However, VAR encounters two primary challenges: (1) its complex and rigid scale design limits generalization in next scale prediction, and (2) the generator's dependence on a discrete tokenizer with the same complex scale structure restricts modularity and flexibility in updating the tokenizer. To address these limitations, we introduce FlowAR, a general next scale prediction method featuring a streamlined scale design, where each subsequent scale is simply double the previous one. This eliminates the need for VAR's intricate multi-scale residual tokenizer and enables the use of any off-the-shelf Variational AutoEncoder (VAE). Our simplified design enhances generalization in next scale prediction and facilitates the integration of Flow Matching for high-quality image synthesis. We validate the effectiveness of FlowAR on the challenging ImageNet-256 benchmark, demonstrating superior generation performance compared to previous methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/FlowAR.

Prevailing autoregressive (AR) models for text-to-image generation either rely on heavy, computationally-intensive diffusion models to process continuous image tokens, or employ vector quantization (VQ) to obtain discrete tokens with quantization loss. In this paper, we push the autoregressive paradigm forward with NextStep-1, a 14B autoregressive model paired with a 157M flow matching head, training on discrete text tokens and continuous image tokens with next-token prediction objectives. NextStep-1 achieves state-of-the-art performance for autoregressive models in text-to-image generation tasks, exhibiting strong capabilities in high-fidelity image synthesis. Furthermore, our method shows strong performance in image editing, highlighting the power and versatility of our unified approach. To facilitate open research, we will release our code and models to the community.

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

Signal decay and regime shifts pose recurring challenges for data-driven investment strategies in non-stationary markets. Conventional time-series and machine learning approaches, which rely primarily on historical correlations, often struggle to generalize when the economic environment changes. While large language models (LLMs) offer strong capabilities for processing unstructured information, their potential to support quantitative factor screening through explicit economic reasoning remains underexplored. Existing factor-based methods typically reduce alphas to numerical time series, overlooking the semantic rationale that determines when a factor is economically relevant. We propose Alpha-R1, an 8B-parameter reasoning model trained via reinforcement learning for context-aware alpha screening. Alpha-R1 reasons over factor logic and real-time news to evaluate alpha relevance under changing market conditions, selectively activating or deactivating factors based on contextual consistency. Empirical results across multiple asset pools show that Alpha-R1 consistently outperforms benchmark strategies and exhibits improved robustness to alpha decay. The full implementation and resources are available at https://github.com/FinStep-AI/Alpha-R1.

Sequential dependencies present a fundamental bottleneck in deploying large-scale autoregressive models, particularly for real-time applications. While traditional optimization approaches like pruning and quantization often compromise model quality, recent advances in generation-refinement frameworks demonstrate that this trade-off can be significantly mitigated. This survey presents a comprehensive taxonomy of generation-refinement frameworks, analyzing methods across autoregressive sequence tasks. We categorize methods based on their generation strategies (from simple n-gram prediction to sophisticated draft models) and refinement mechanisms (including single-pass verification and iterative approaches). Through systematic analysis of both algorithmic innovations and system-level implementations, we examine deployment strategies across computing environments and explore applications spanning text, images, and speech generation. This systematic examination of both theoretical frameworks and practical implementations provides a foundation for future research in efficient autoregressive decoding.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

We present RigAnything, a novel autoregressive transformer-based model, which makes 3D assets rig-ready by probabilistically generating joints, skeleton topologies, and assigning skinning weights in a template-free manner. Unlike most existing auto-rigging methods, which rely on predefined skeleton template and are limited to specific categories like humanoid, RigAnything approaches the rigging problem in an autoregressive manner, iteratively predicting the next joint based on the global input shape and the previous prediction. While autoregressive models are typically used to generate sequential data, RigAnything extends their application to effectively learn and represent skeletons, which are inherently tree structures. To achieve this, we organize the joints in a breadth-first search (BFS) order, enabling the skeleton to be defined as a sequence of 3D locations and the parent index. Furthermore, our model improves the accuracy of position prediction by leveraging diffusion modeling, ensuring precise and consistent placement of joints within the hierarchy. This formulation allows the autoregressive model to efficiently capture both spatial and hierarchical relationships within the skeleton. Trained end-to-end on both RigNet and Objaverse datasets, RigAnything demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across diverse object types, including humanoids, quadrupeds, marine creatures, insects, and many more, surpassing prior methods in quality, robustness, generalizability, and efficiency. Please check our website for more details: https://www.liuisabella.com/RigAnything.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

Next-Token Prediction (NTP) is a de facto approach for autoregressive (AR) video generation, but it suffers from suboptimal unidirectional dependencies and slow inference speed. In this work, we propose a semi-autoregressive (semi-AR) framework, called Next-Block Prediction (NBP), for video generation. By uniformly decomposing video content into equal-sized blocks (e.g., rows or frames), we shift the generation unit from individual tokens to blocks, allowing each token in the current block to simultaneously predict the corresponding token in the next block. Unlike traditional AR modeling, our framework employs bidirectional attention within each block, enabling tokens to capture more robust spatial dependencies. By predicting multiple tokens in parallel, NBP models significantly reduce the number of generation steps, leading to faster and more efficient inference. Our model achieves FVD scores of 103.3 on UCF101 and 25.5 on K600, outperforming the vanilla NTP model by an average of 4.4. Furthermore, thanks to the reduced number of inference steps, the NBP model generates 8.89 frames (128x128 resolution) per second, achieving an 11x speedup. We also explored model scales ranging from 700M to 3B parameters, observing significant improvements in generation quality, with FVD scores dropping from 103.3 to 55.3 on UCF101 and from 25.5 to 19.5 on K600, demonstrating the scalability of our approach.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) models with continuous tokens for image generation show promising results by eliminating the need for discrete tokenization. However, these models face efficiency challenges due to their sequential token generation nature and reliance on computationally intensive diffusion-based sampling. We present ECAR (Efficient Continuous Auto-Regressive Image Generation via Multistage Modeling), an approach that addresses these limitations through two intertwined innovations: (1) a stage-wise continuous token generation strategy that reduces computational complexity and provides progressively refined token maps as hierarchical conditions, and (2) a multistage flow-based distribution modeling method that transforms only partial-denoised distributions at each stage comparing to complete denoising in normal diffusion models. Holistically, ECAR operates by generating tokens at increasing resolutions while simultaneously denoising the image at each stage. This design not only reduces token-to-image transformation cost by a factor of the stage number but also enables parallel processing at the token level. Our approach not only enhances computational efficiency but also aligns naturally with image generation principles by operating in continuous token space and following a hierarchical generation process from coarse to fine details. Experimental results demonstrate that ECAR achieves comparable image quality to DiT Peebles & Xie [2023] while requiring 10times FLOPs reduction and 5times speedup to generate a 256times256 image.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Nonconvex optimization is central in solving many machine learning problems, in which block-wise structure is commonly encountered. In this work, we propose cyclic block coordinate methods for nonconvex optimization problems with non-asymptotic gradient norm guarantees. Our convergence analysis is based on a gradient Lipschitz condition with respect to a Mahalanobis norm, inspired by a recent progress on cyclic block coordinate methods. In deterministic settings, our convergence guarantee matches the guarantee of (full-gradient) gradient descent, but with the gradient Lipschitz constant being defined w.r.t.~a Mahalanobis norm. In stochastic settings, we use recursive variance reduction to decrease the per-iteration cost and match the arithmetic operation complexity of current optimal stochastic full-gradient methods, with a unified analysis for both finite-sum and infinite-sum cases. We prove a faster linear convergence result when a Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz (P{\L}) condition holds. To our knowledge, this work is the first to provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees -- variance-reduced or not -- for a cyclic block coordinate method in general composite (smooth + nonsmooth) nonconvex settings. Our experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed cyclic scheme in training deep neural nets.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Visual autoregressive models typically adhere to a raster-order ``next-token prediction" paradigm, which overlooks the spatial and temporal locality inherent in visual content. Specifically, visual tokens exhibit significantly stronger correlations with their spatially or temporally adjacent tokens compared to those that are distant. In this paper, we propose Neighboring Autoregressive Modeling (NAR), a novel paradigm that formulates autoregressive visual generation as a progressive outpainting procedure, following a near-to-far ``next-neighbor prediction" mechanism. Starting from an initial token, the remaining tokens are decoded in ascending order of their Manhattan distance from the initial token in the spatial-temporal space, progressively expanding the boundary of the decoded region. To enable parallel prediction of multiple adjacent tokens in the spatial-temporal space, we introduce a set of dimension-oriented decoding heads, each predicting the next token along a mutually orthogonal dimension. During inference, all tokens adjacent to the decoded tokens are processed in parallel, substantially reducing the model forward steps for generation. Experiments on ImageNet256times 256 and UCF101 demonstrate that NAR achieves 2.4times and 8.6times higher throughput respectively, while obtaining superior FID/FVD scores for both image and video generation tasks compared to the PAR-4X approach. When evaluating on text-to-image generation benchmark GenEval, NAR with 0.8B parameters outperforms Chameleon-7B while using merely 0.4 of the training data. Code is available at https://github.com/ThisisBillhe/NAR.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

We present an architecture of a recurrent neural network (RNN) with a fully-connected deep neural network (DNN) as its feature extractor. The RNN is equipped with both causal temporal prediction and non-causal look-ahead, via auto-regression (AR) and moving-average (MA), respectively. The focus of this paper is a primal-dual training method that formulates the learning of the RNN as a formal optimization problem with an inequality constraint that provides a sufficient condition for the stability of the network dynamics. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this new method, which achieves 18.86% phone recognition error on the TIMIT benchmark for the core test set. The result approaches the best result of 17.7%, which was obtained by using RNN with long short-term memory (LSTM). The results also show that the proposed primal-dual training method produces lower recognition errors than the popular RNN methods developed earlier based on the carefully tuned threshold parameter that heuristically prevents the gradient from exploding.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Diffusion and flow matching models have significantly advanced media generation, yet their design space is well-explored, somewhat limiting further improvements. Concurrently, autoregressive (AR) models, particularly those generating continuous tokens, have emerged as a promising direction for unifying text and media generation. This paper introduces Transition Matching (TM), a novel discrete-time, continuous-state generative paradigm that unifies and advances both diffusion/flow models and continuous AR generation. TM decomposes complex generation tasks into simpler Markov transitions, allowing for expressive non-deterministic probability transition kernels and arbitrary non-continuous supervision processes, thereby unlocking new flexible design avenues. We explore these choices through three TM variants: (i) Difference Transition Matching (DTM), which generalizes flow matching to discrete-time by directly learning transition probabilities, yielding state-of-the-art image quality and text adherence as well as improved sampling efficiency. (ii) Autoregressive Transition Matching (ARTM) and (iii) Full History Transition Matching (FHTM) are partially and fully causal models, respectively, that generalize continuous AR methods. They achieve continuous causal AR generation quality comparable to non-causal approaches and potentially enable seamless integration with existing AR text generation techniques. Notably, FHTM is the first fully causal model to match or surpass the performance of flow-based methods on text-to-image task in continuous domains. We demonstrate these contributions through a rigorous large-scale comparison of TM variants and relevant baselines, maintaining a fixed architecture, training data, and hyperparameters.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Decoder-only autoregressive image generation typically relies on fixed-length tokenization schemes whose token counts grow quadratically with resolution, substantially increasing the computational and memory demands of attention. We present DPAR, a novel decoder-only autoregressive model that dynamically aggregates image tokens into a variable number of patches for efficient image generation. Our work is the first to demonstrate that next-token prediction entropy from a lightweight and unsupervised autoregressive model provides a reliable criterion for merging tokens into larger patches based on information content. DPAR makes minimal modifications to the standard decoder architecture, ensuring compatibility with multimodal generation frameworks and allocating more compute to generation of high-information image regions. Further, we demonstrate that training with dynamically sized patches yields representations that are robust to patch boundaries, allowing DPAR to scale to larger patch sizes at inference. DPAR reduces token count by 1.81x and 2.06x on Imagenet 256 and 384 generation resolution respectively, leading to a reduction of up to 40% FLOPs in training costs. Further, our method exhibits faster convergence and improves FID by up to 27.1% relative to baseline models.

Transfer learning has recently shown significant performance across various tasks involving deep neural networks. In these transfer learning scenarios, the prior distribution for downstream data becomes crucial in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). While previous works proposed the prior over the neural network parameters centered around the pre-trained solution, such strategies have limitations when dealing with distribution shifts between upstream and downstream data. This paper introduces nonparametric transfer learning (NPTL), a flexible posterior sampling method to address the distribution shift issue within the context of nonparametric learning. The nonparametric learning (NPL) method is a recent approach that employs a nonparametric prior for posterior sampling, efficiently accounting for model misspecification scenarios, which is suitable for transfer learning scenarios that may involve the distribution shift between upstream and downstream tasks. Through extensive empirical validations, we demonstrate that our approach surpasses other baselines in BMA performance.